New Delhi, December 2018 :
ABP News released the exit poll data provided by Lokniti CSDS, basis pre-election surveys for Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. This data highlights the voter sentiments in all the three states.
Today’s exit poll projects the expected vote and seat share amongst the contesting political parties in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan.
Mr. Avinash Pandey, COO, ABP News Network said, “ABP News Network has been setting new benchmarks with its election programming which, projects exit poll trends and insights that keep our viewers informed and ahead of the rest. The seat share, vote share and regional data with highlights provide a holistic perspective backed by modern scientific methodologies that bring to fore the in-depth analysis undertaken by ABP.”
He further added, “With the vision to keep DeshkoRakheAagey’, we employ the best news analysis methodologies and on-ground research, to keep our viewers engaged. These exit polls are of utmost significance that would set the tone for the upcoming General Elections 2019 and manifest the pulse of the nation.”
Some key highlights of the opinion poll:
Madhya Pradesh Assembly Election 2018 – Key takeaways
1. The Congress has emerged as the most preferred party; 43 percent are likely to have voted for the Congress whereas the incumbent party BJP is likely to have secured 40 percent of the votes.
2. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) was preferred by 5 percent of the respondents and 12 percent chose other parties in the state.
3. Congress likely to be on top in all regions except Malwa North where the BJP may end up with a narrow lead
4. A quarter of the respondents had made their mind about whom to vote for much before the campaign started; and a little more than one of five made their mind after the candidates were declared by the party.
5. Inflation was the biggest issue while voting in the Madhya Pradesh Assembly Election for one of five voters, followed closely by unemployment.
6. Development, Corruption and poverty were also important issues in the Madhya Pradesh Assembly Elections.
7. Party was considered more important than candidate while voting.
8. State leaders are liked by voters than national leaders like Narendra Modi, Rahul Gandhi and Amit Shah.
9. The survey found a huge anti-incumbency sentiment; almost half of the surveyed voters expressed that the incumbent BJP government should not get another chance; only two of five wanted government to be re-elected.
10. The satisfaction with the ruling state government was also very low as compared to the past assembly election held in 2013.
11. Satisfaction with the Central government headed by the NDA was even lower than the state BJP government in Madhya Pradesh.
Chhattisgarh Assembly Elections 2018 Post Poll Survey – main takeaways
1. BJP looks set to win Chhattisgarh despite fairly strong anti-incumbency sentiment
2. BJP expected to secure 42% of the total votes cast, Congress likely to end up five points behind at 37%
3. Janata Congress Chhattisgarh (Jogi)-BSP alliance likely to net 12% votes
4. BJP has a big lead over Congress in Central Chhattisgarh, however contest is close in North and South with the Congress leading in the North
5. Despite majority voters wanting a change, Congress unable to benefit primarily due to Ajit Jogi factor
6. JCC-BSP alliance seems to have damaged the Congress more than the BJP. Nearly one in ten traditional Congress supporters seems to have voted for the alliance.
7. The alliance is also attracting a sizeable proportion of anti incumbency votes. Close to 2 of 5 voters who said that they do not want the BJP government in the state to get another chance seem to have voted for JCC-BSP alliance.
8. The BJP seems to have a significant advantage over the Congress among women voters compared to men.
9. Many voters claimed to have benefited from the welfare schemes of the state government. The majority of voters said they had benefitted from Sanchar Kranti Yojana (free smart phones).
10. Unemployment has emerged as the biggest election issue followed by price rise.
Rajasthan Assembly Elections 2018 Post Poll Survey – main takeaways
1. There is a tight contest between the Congress and the BJP in Rajasthan Assembly election 2018 which was seen as an easy victory of the Congress during the pre-poll survey conducted in mid-October 2018.
2. Congress is leading by a margin of 1.5 percentage points over the BJP
3. The others parties could play a significant role in the government formation.
4. The campaign led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi may have had an impact on this swing as seven of ten respondents believed that people would tilt towards the BJP after his rallies; Narendra Modi made last minute visits in Rajasthan and did rallies close to the day of voting.
5. Narendra Modi is the most preferred leader in Rajasthan, three of four surveyed voters like him, followed by ex-Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot, liked by a little more than two thirds of the respondents.
6. Even Sachin Pilot is more likable than VasundharaRaje on individual rating.
7. In the present survey VasundharaRaje is the most preferred but her popularity has come down drastically; Ashok Gehlot is only one percentage point after her.
8. Not many voters are satisfied with the state government headed by VasundharaRaje; on the contrary voters are much more satisfied with the Central Government run by the NDA.
9. An interesting finding which emerges from the survey is that though people are not ready to give another chance to the BJP government in the state in the present assembly election, but they are ready to give another chance to the BJP government in upcoming Lok Sabha election scheduled in 2019.
10. In the Lok Sabha Election, voters of Rajasthan have intended to vote for the BJP and there is a difference of 10 percentage points.
11. Unemployment and price rise are the two important issues while voting in Rajasthan assembly election. A quarter of the voters said unemployment was the issue; on the other hand, one of the seven voters said that it was inflation.
12. For Rajasthan voters candidates were the important consideration while voting than parties; candidates’ work is more looked upon while electing them.