New Delhi, June 2025.

Mumbai, Chennai, Delhi, Surat, Thane, Hyderabad, Patna and Bhubaneswar are projected to witness a two-fold increase in heatwave days. Extended heat wave conditions are likely to trigger more frequent, incessant and erratic rainfall events. Eight out of ten districts in India are going to experience multiple instances of such rainfall extremes by 2030, according to a first-of-its-kind independent study released today by the IPE-Global and Esri India.

The frequency, intensity, and unpredictability of these extreme heat and rainfall events have risen significantly in recent decades.  India has witnessed a 15-fold increase in extreme heat wave days across the March-April-May (MAM) and June-July-August-September (JJAS) months in the last three decades (between 1993-2024). Alarmingly, the last decade alone has witnessed a 19-fold increase in extreme heat wave days. The study also found that monsoon seasons in India are witnessing an extended summer-like condition, except on non-rainy days. The study was launched at the International Global-South Climate Risk Symposium titled “Paving a Climate Resilient Future”, organised by IPE Global and Esri India, as the world prepares for SB 62—the 62^nd session of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)’s subsidiary bodies in Bonn, Germany.

Abinash Mohanty, Head of the Climate Change and Sustainability Practice at IPE Global and the lead author of the study, noted, “​The study and its stark findings suggest how climate change has exposed India to extreme heat and rainfall and the situation is going to be grimmer and harsher by 2030 with majority of the urban centres are going to be impacted the most. Further, the meteorological phenomenon like El Niño & La Niña are going to gain stronger momentum, resulting in abrupt surge in climate extremes like flood, cyclones, storm surges and extreme heat. Our analysis suggests that around 72 per cent of the tier-I & tier-II cities are going to witness an increased occurrences of heat stress and extreme rainfall events, accompanied with storm surges, lightening and hailstorms. Embracing hyper-granular risk assessments and establish climate-risk observatories should become a national imperative to safeguard Indian agriculture, industry, and large-scale infrastructural projects from the vagaries of climate change”.

Gujarat, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Odisha, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Meghalaya, and Manipur are witnessing the double whammy of heat stress and extreme rainfall, with more than 80 percent of the districts projected to be impacted by this by 2030.

The IPE Global study found that the coastal regions will experience heat stress-like conditions during the JJAS (June-July-August-September) season by 2030. Approximately 69% of coastal districts are projected to face extended summer discomforts by 2030, increasing to 79% by 2040.

Ashwajit Singh, Founder and Managing Director of IPE Global, said, “​Recently, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres issued a “Call to Action on Extreme Heat in response to the deadly impacts of rising temperatures all over the world” -- and India is no   exception. Climate and development pathways are intricately linked. Nearly all countries of the Global South face the dual challenge of improving living conditions for large segments of their population while simultaneously adapting to the consequences of climate change. We, at IPE Global, have been consistently striving to develop and implement strategies that turn environment risks into competitive advantages. This study is a testament to how we can bring innovations from the margins to mainstream --making India and Global South climate-ready. Only then, can India truly emerge as the climate solutions capital to the world”.

Climate Change is Making Extreme Events Harsher and More Severe: The study found a clear trend: extreme heatwave hotspots are witnessing an increase in both the frequency and intensity of incessant and erratic rainfall events. Coastal districts—on both the eastern coast and western coast—have been observing unpredictable rainfall events more recurrently. Districts with higher heatwave occurrences in June-July-August-September tend to have higher occurrences of incessant and erratic rainfall events as well. The study also found that districts that identified district hotspots under the current business-as-usual scenario will undergo a 63 per cent change in land-use and land-cover. These shifting patterns are driven by microclimatic changes across the Indian subcontinent that are triggered by local climate change drivers such as land-use-surface change, deforestation, encroachments on mangroves, and wetlands. 

Agendra Kumar, Managing Director, Esri India, said, “The growing intensity and frequency of extreme heat and rainfall events across India are no longer rare occurrences—they are signals of a shifting climate reality impacting lives, livelihoods, and infrastructure. Addressing this challenge requires a holistic, data-driven approach rooted in science and spatial intelligence. Geographic Information System (GIS) technology, with its ability to integrate, visualize, and analyze diverse datasets, offers a powerful lens to understand climate impacts across economic, social, and environmental dimensions. GIS supports proactive planning—whether for climate-resilient infrastructure, disaster response, or public engagement. GIS is already foundational to national missions like PARIVESH, Jal Jeevan Mission, and Clean Ganga, helping turn climate data into actionable insight. At Esri India, we are committed to empowering our users and partners with cutting-edge geospatial tools and data, enabling them to not just monitor the changing climate but to build a more adaptive, resilient, and sustainable future.”

The study recommends that risk assessment principles should form the cornerstone of India’s strategy to build resilience against heatwaves and extreme rainfall. As an initial step, it proposes establishing a Climate Risk Observatory (CRO) that can help identify, assess, and project chronic and acute heat risks at a hyper-granular level. The CRO uses advanced technologies like Earth Observation data and climate models to provide real-time and predictive information. This data can help policymakers, city planners, businesses, and the public understand the risks posed by climate change and make informed decisions to mitigate, adapt, and prepare for those risks. A decision support system like CRO offers a comprehensive suite of capabilities to empower governments and key decision-makers to navigate the complexities of climate-related challenges, under the cascading impacts and mitigate risks by leveraging advanced data analytics and innovative strategies.

The study also recommends devising risk financing instruments to mitigate the impacts of heatwaves and extreme rainfall events. Further, it suggests appointing heat-risk-champions within district disaster management committees- these champions will enable these agencies to prioritise and coordinate the heat-risk mitigation efforts at the district level and, consequently, accelerate heat resilience.

The IPE Global and Esri India study is significant as it provides a micro-level hazard assessment of heat and rainfall extremes across Indian districts and their projected likelihood of occurrence by 2030. It argues that comprehensive risk assessments at the hyper-local level are the need of the hour and reliance on global models alone will not be sufficient. Moreover, identifying and estimating climatic risks is part of the global call-to-action to climate-proof lives, livelihoods, infrastructure and economies.

Methodology : The study is the first-of-its-kind district level heat-risk and extreme rainfall attributional correlation by discussing the complexity and non-linear trends and patterns of climate extremes. It uses a dynamic ensemble climate modelling approach to project and map scenarios for 2030 and 2040.

Through spatial and climatological modelling, the study generates empirical evidence on the exposure of Indian districts to extreme heatwaves and incessant, erratic rainfall along with micro-seasonal variations.