New Delhi, August 2024.

Over84percentofIndiandistrictsarepronetoextremeheatwaves,ofwhich 70 per cent of them are witnessing increased frequency and intensity of extreme rainfallevents, according to a first-of-its-kind independent study released today by the IPE-Global and Esri India. The frequency, intensity, and unpredictability of these extreme heat and rainfall events havealsoriseninrecentdecades.WhileIndiahaswitnesseda15foldincreaseinextremeheatwavedaysacross the march-April-May (MAM) and June-July-August-September (JJAS) months in last threedecades, last decade alone has witnessed a 19 fold increase in extreme heat wave days. The studyalsofoundthatmonsoonsseasonsinIndiaarewitnessinganextendedsummerlikeconditionexcepton non-rainy days. The study was launched at a National Symposium titled “How can India address climate extremes” organised by IPE Global, Esri India and its partners UNESCO and Climate Trends today- as the world is gearing up for the Climate Week NYC, USA where business leaders, politicalchangemakersareexpectedtodeliberatetheonclimateactioncommitments.

Abinash Mohanty, Head- Climate Change and Sustainability Practice at IPE Global and the author ofthestudy,said,“Thecurrenttrendofcatastrophicextremeheatandrainfalleventsarearesultantof0.6 °C temperature rise in the last century. El Nino is gaining momentum and making its earlypresencefeltacrosstheglobewithIndiafacingtheextremeeventsturbulencemoreinpatternsthanwaves. Recent Kerala landslides triggered by incessant and erratic rainfall episodes and the cities getting paralysed with sudden and abrupt downpour is a testament that climate is changed. Ouranalysissuggeststhat8outof10Indianswillbehighlyexposedtoextremeeventsby2036andthesenumbers peak of volumes. Embracing hyper-granular risk assessments and establish climate-riskobservatories should become a national imperative to safeguard Indian agriculture, industry, andlarge-scaleinfrastructuralprojectsfromthevagariesofclimatechange”.

Agendra Kumar, Managing Director, Esri India, said, “The increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves in conjunction with intense precipitations are causing significant impacts on lives, livelihoods, and infrastructure. A holistic, data-driven approach is essential for informed policy decisions, climate adaptation, and resilience. GIS technology, with advanced spatial analysis tools and the ability to integrate a variety of data, enables a comprehensive understanding of the impact of climate from economic, social, and environmental perspectives. Decision-makers in government can use it for resilient infrastructure planning & development, disaster management, and citizen engagement. Businesses can integrate climate insights for better strategic planning and building higher resilience in supply chains and business operations. GIS technology is already the core foundation of various disaster resilience programs, infrastructure, utilities, natural resources management, and missions like smart cities, AMRUT, National Water Mission, and Clean Ganga, among others. At Esri India, we continuously work towards enabling our partners and end users with the latest technology, tools, and data, so that they can use mapping and location analytics to manage the impacts of climate change in their efforts to build a sustainable future for all.”

Gujarat,Rajasthan,Uttarakhand,HimachalPradesh,Maharashtra,UttarPradesh,Meghalaya,andManipurarewitnessingthedoublewhammyofheatstressand extreme rainfall

TheIPEGlobalstudyfoundthatmorethan84percentofIndian districts can be considered extreme heatwave hotspots, of which around 70 per cent havewitnessed incessant and erratic rainfall more recurrently (in last three decades) in the last threedecadesinthemonsoonseason(JJAS).Further,inOctober,November,andDecember(OND),morethan 62 per cent of heatwave-prone Indian districts have been witnessing erratic and incessantrainfall. The increase in atmospheric temperatures and humidity increases the likelihood ofheatwaves globally, especially in tropical regions. Based on the study’regional analysis the followingstatesare witnessing extreme heat waves.

Changing patterns of climate events

Thestudyfoundatrendthatextremeheatwavehotspotsarewitnessinganincreaseinfrequencyandintensity of incessant and erratic rainfall events. Districts on coasts—both the eastern coast and western coast—have been observing unpredictable rainfall events more recurrently. Districts withhigher heatwave occurrences in June-July-August-September tend to have higher occurrences ofincessant and erratic rainfall events as well. Rising temperatures and humidity in the atmosphereincreasethelikelihoodofheatwavesglobally,especiallyintropicalregions.Theincreasedfrequencyandintensityofheatwavedaysthataretriggeringincessantanderraticrainfalleventsduetoclimatechangeposesignificantchallenges,necessitatingcomprehensivestrategiesformitigationandadaptation to protect affected vulnerable communities. The study finds that Around 8 out of 10Indians are going to be exposed to extreme heat events by 2036. The study also found that districtsthat identified district hotspots have undergone a 55 per cent change in land-use-land-cover. ThesechangingpatternsareduetomicroclimaticchangesacrosstheIndiansubcontinentthataretriggeredbylocalclimatechangedriverssuchasland-use-surfacechange,deforestation,encroachmentsuponmangroves,andwetlands.

The study recommends that risk assessment principles should form the core of India’s strategy tobuild heat wave and extreme rainfall resilience. As a first step, it proposes establishing a heat riskobservatory (HRO)- an observatory can help in identifying, assessing, and projecting chronic andacute heat risks at a hyper-granular level to better prepare against heat-related extremities such asurban heat islands, water stress, vector-borne diseases, crop loss, and biodiversity and ecosystemcollapse.ItalsosuggestsDevisingriskfinancinginstrumentstomitigateheatriskandextremerainfallevents.Further,itsuggestsappointingheat-risk-championswithindistrictdisastermanagement

committees- this will allow these agencies to prioritise and unify the heat-risk mitigation efforts atthedistrict leveland,consequently, accelerateheat resilience.

The IPE and Esri study holds significance as it provides a micro-level hazard assessment of heat andrainfallextremesacrossIndiandistricts.Itarguesthatcomprehensiveriskassessmentsatthe hyper-local level are the need of the hour and relying just on global models wont be effective. Moreover,identifying and estimating climatic risks is one of the global call-to-action to climate-proof lives,livelihoods, infrastructure and economies at the India lead G20 presidency which is being furthermaterialisedat thecurrenteditionofBrazilG20.